The Hunter produced 44.6 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in the year to June 2023, accounting for 34.5 per cent of NSW emissions, according to updated analysis from the University of Newcastle’s Institute for Regional Futures.
The figures are contained in the Institute’s September 2026 Hunter Insight Dashboard and use the latest regional emissions estimates released by the NSW Government in July.
The Hunter’s total was down from 48.4 million tonnes in 2021, when the region accounted for 37.1 per cent of NSW emissions.
The Institute found Hunter emissions in 2023 were about 5.7 per cent lower than the previous year and 7.8 per cent below 2021 levels, primarily due to changes in electricity generation, with fugitive emissions from fuels also declining.
The data covers the year ending June 2023 because local-scale greenhouse gas estimates are published with a lag of about three years.
Electricity generation dominates regional total
Electricity generation accounted for 67 per cent of the Hunter’s emissions in 2023.
However, the Institute estimated that 65 per cent of those electricity-generation emissions were associated with power exported to consumers outside the Hunter.
Under the territorial accounting used for the headline regional figures, those emissions occur in the Hunter because that is where the electricity is generated.
After adjusting for electricity-generation emissions associated with electricity exported outside the region, the Institute calculated the Hunter’s emissions at 25.4 million tonnes, or 19.6 per cent of the NSW total.
The distinction is important in understanding the region’s emissions profile as the Hunter’s electricity system changes.
On a per-person basis, the Institute calculated Hunter emissions at 55.8 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Adjusting for electricity supplied to users outside the region reduced that figure to 31.7 tonnes per person, compared with 15.5 tonnes for NSW using the same dataset and accounting basis.
The Institute cautioned against comparing these figures directly with Australia’s national greenhouse inventory because the national inventory uses different accounting boundaries.
Industrial emissions extend through supply chains
The dashboard also examines emissions associated with industrial production beyond direct fuel use and purchased electricity.
Known as Scope 3 emissions, these include indirect emissions generated elsewhere in the upstream and downstream supply chains supporting economic activity in the Hunter.
The Institute estimated these emissions using a combination of the EXIOBASE multi-regional input-output model, national input-output tables and local economic data from REMPLAN.
Manufacturing was the largest contributor to the Hunter’s estimated Scope 3 industrial emissions, at close to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The Institute identified contributors including emissions from mining inputs, indirect electricity associated with non-ferrous metal manufacturing, agricultural emissions associated with meat product manufacturing, and cement and lime preparation for concrete manufacturing.
Unlike the updated regional totals, the manufacturing Scope 3 estimate is not a new finding in the September dashboard and was also reported by the Institute earlier in 2026.
The Institute said Scope 3 emissions accounting could provide information about additional opportunities for industry to decarbonise, although those opportunities could be difficult to realise because of measurement issues and the need to involve multiple stakeholders.
Transition already visible in the data
The Institute said progress in reducing Hunter emissions was being observed as ageing coal-fired power stations retired or operated at lower capacity.
The updated figures provide a more recent baseline for measuring that change, while also demonstrating that the Hunter’s emissions profile extends beyond the electricity generated within the region.
The Hunter Insight Dashboard covers Cessnock, Dungog, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Mid-Coast, Muswellbrook, Newcastle, Port Stephens, Singleton and Upper Hunter local government areas.
