The NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development has outlined a long-term pathway for sustainable aviation fuel, identifying both rising demand and the role of regional supply chains in meeting it.
Global aviation is moving towards lower emissions, with multiple countries and industry bodies setting targets through to 2050. Within Australia, modelling commissioned by the NSW Office of Regional Economic Development indicates biogenic sustainable aviation fuel could account for around 52 per cent of aviation fuel use by 2050 under a higher uptake scenario.
In NSW, total demand is projected to reach between 4,000 and 4,300 megalitres per year by mid-century. The same modelling estimates the market value of biogenic fuel at $4.8 billion in NSW, within a national market of $11.9 billion.
Biogenic fuel is intended to function as a direct replacement for conventional jet fuel, allowing it to be used in existing aircraft without major changes to infrastructure or fleet.
Feedstocks link metro waste with regional production
The prospectus points to a mix of feedstock sources across NSW, combining metropolitan waste streams with regional agricultural and forestry inputs.
Municipal solid waste and commercial and industrial waste generated in Sydney can be combined with feedstocks from surrounding regions including the Hunter, Central Coast, Wollongong and Lithgow. This creates a supply base that draws on both urban and regional inputs.
Regional areas including Riverina-Murray, New England North West and the Central West are identified as having high feedstock availability, with cropping residues, forestry outputs and livestock byproducts forming part of the supply mix.
The total available feedstock across NSW is estimated at around 22 million tonnes per year. Within that, the Hunter Valley excluding Newcastle contributes material from livestock, municipal waste and commercial waste streams.
Infrastructure connects production to aviation demand
Existing transport and export infrastructure is a central part of the proposed supply chain.
Sydney remains the largest aviation fuel user in the country, with around 3,600 megalitres per year currently consumed and forecast to grow over time. The addition of Western Sydney Airport is expected to further increase demand.
Ports including Port of Newcastle, Port Botany and Port Kembla are identified as potential gateways for both export and domestic distribution. Rail and road networks, including major freight corridors, are positioned to move feedstock and finished fuel between regions and end users.
The prospectus also notes that proximity to Renewable Energy Zones may reduce input costs for production, particularly where electricity is required in processing pathways.
Workforce and research support development
Regional workforce capability is identified as a supporting factor, with existing skills in construction, mining, utilities and technical services considered transferable to fuel production.
The prospectus states that regional NSW already has a workforce base aligned with these requirements, supported by a pipeline of science and engineering graduates.
Research capability is also referenced, with universities including the University of Newcastle and UNSW involved in projects focused on producing lower cost aviation fuels using renewable hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
Industry-led programs such as the Trailblazer for Recycling and Clean Energy are working to move research into commercial application, including in sustainable fuels.
Policy settings focus on supply chains and waste streams
State policy settings are framed as enabling conditions for the industry, particularly through funding and waste management reforms.
The Net Zero Industry and Innovation Program includes funding for low carbon fuels and supply chain development, with a total investment of $360 million to 2030. Part of this funding is directed towards clean manufacturing precincts in the Hunter and Illawarra.
Separately, the NSW Waste and Sustainable Materials Strategy is expected to increase the availability of organic material suitable for fuel production. Measures include requirements for food and garden organics separation and targets to reduce landfill volumes.
These policy settings are intended to support both feedstock availability and early-stage project development.
Early project locations point to regional NSW
The prospectus identifies several local government areas as potential sites for pilot or demonstration projects, including Carrathool, Bland, Moree Plains, Walgett and Narrabri.
These locations are selected based on feedstock availability, proximity to infrastructure and access to regional transport networks.
In addition, feedstock aggregation is identified as an option, with northern and southern NSW regions able to combine material for either domestic processing or export.
The inclusion of waste streams from areas such as the Hunter alongside agricultural inputs from inland regions reflects a supply model that depends on coordination across multiple parts of the state.
