Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), released today, sets out how climate change will affect communities, the economy, and the environment in the coming decades. The report makes clear that no part of the country will be untouched, with risks often occurring at the same time and compounding one another.
The NCRA identifies 11 priority risks across seven areas: communities, defence and security, the economy, health, infrastructure, the natural environment, and primary industries. Cross-cutting risks such as water security, supply chains, governance and coastal vulnerability are also assessed.
The assessment warns that hazards like heatwaves, bushfires, floods and cyclones will become more frequent and more severe. It estimates that by 2050, an extra 1.5 million people could be living in high-risk coastal areas exposed to sea level rise. Heat-related deaths are projected to rise, especially in northern regions, and Australia’s ecosystems face major threats, with up to 70% of native plant species expected to be outside their current climate range.
The process also included an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander-led assessment of climate risks, with those perspectives integrated into each system chapter.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said: “Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today but it’s clear every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come.”
The NCRA was produced by the Australian Climate Service – a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia – using data and analysis from across government and research agencies.
To accompany the report, the government also launched the National Adaptation Plan. It sets out how adaptation will be coordinated across levels of government and industries, outlining existing work such as the National Health and Climate Strategy, the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework, and projects backed by the $1 billion Disaster Ready Fund.
Since 2022, the federal government says it has committed $3.6 billion to adaptation and resilience programs, with around $9 billion in other spending also contributing to climate readiness while supporting jobs and economic activity.
Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy Josh Wilson explains why this initiative is so important: “Equipped with the most comprehensive and detailed understanding of the climate risks we face, Australia will be in a stronger position than ever before to plan and deliver appropriate responses.”
The assessment and adaptation plan are both available online as resources for communities, businesses and governments to plan ahead.
