In a statement today the Export Council of Australia (ECA) chief executive Arnold Jorge said the opening weeks of 2026 have already shown how unsettled the international trading environment has become.
He pointed to recent developments including moves by the United States to control Venezuelan oil, China imposing a 55 per cent tariff on Australian beef above an agreed quota, and the European Union signing a free trade agreement with Mercosur. He also noted that further change is likely, with agreements such as the forthcoming ASEAN–Canada Free Trade Agreement.
According to Mr Jorge, these developments reflect a broader shift in how governments are using trade policy.
Trade increasingly shaped by security concerns
Mr Jorge said governments around the world are now treating trade as a tool to advance national security and geopolitical interests, rather than viewing it solely as an economic exchange. He said this shift is having direct implications for exporters and importers, including from a competitive perspective.
He outlined a growing range of trade measures now being used by major economies, including higher and retaliatory tariffs, unpredictable border processes, export controls linked to sensitive and dual-use technologies, incentives for reshoring and nearshoring, tighter investment screening, restrictions on data flows, local content requirements and mandatory standards.
He said these measures reflect a trading system increasingly shaped by security priorities rather than market logic.
A more fragmented global trading system
Mr Jorge said globalisation is not reversing, but changing form. Countries are reassessing who they trade with, what they trade and the conditions under which that trade occurs.
He referred to recent analysis by the Boston Consulting Group that describes a “multi-nodal trade patchwork”, with blocs such as the United States, China, BRICS+ and plurilateral economies forming their own trade networks. He noted that the analysis shows trade with the United States declining in relative terms in sectors where security concerns and reshoring incentives are strongest.
According to Mr Jorge, these findings reflect what many exporters are already experiencing: a global trading system that is becoming more fragmented and more contested.
Opportunities alongside complexity
Despite the challenges, Mr Jorge said the current environment also presents opportunities for Australian businesses. He told subscribers that Australia’s reputation for reliability, transparency and regulatory integrity is increasingly valued by countries seeking trusted trading partners.
He identified emerging opportunities in areas such as critical minerals and green technology, high-integrity and traceable agrifood, and niche advanced manufacturing. He said Australia has the capability to meet these demands, provided businesses respond with clarity and intent.
Geopolitics as a commercial factor
Mr Jorge said geopolitics must now be treated as a core commercial variable. He warned that market access, compliance burdens and supply chain reliability can change quickly as governments adjust their priorities.
He said businesses that actively monitor geopolitical developments, and understand the reasoning behind them, will be better placed to anticipate disruption and identify new opportunities. As Mr Jorge wrote: “Trade is no longer just about efficiency. It is about resilience, alignment, and strategic value. The world is not de-globalising; it is re-organising.”
What exporters are being advised to do
Mr Jorge said businesses can no longer rely on assumptions about stable markets or predictable rules. He outlined steps exporters may need to take, including integrating geopolitical risk into planning, diversifying markets and supply chains with trusted partners, forming partnerships to strengthen resilience, investing in traceability and compliance capability, and engaging early with government and industry bodies.
He said adapting in these ways will be increasingly important as trade settings continue to evolve.
The role of government support
Mr Jorge also said the Australian Government has an important role to play in supporting businesses engaged in international trade. He warned that as foreign governments intensify support for their own industries, there is a risk they will capture parts of Australia’s market share.
Among the measures he suggested were adapting and strengthening trade agreements, improving trade intelligence and early-warning systems, and expanding support for exporters entering new markets. He described the establishment of the Austrade Trade Diversification Network under the Accessing New Markets Initiative as a positive development.
